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Hanna hanging around, Ike wandering west

Now that Gustav is onshore and blowing himself out, all eyes have turned to Hanna, who was upgraded to a hurricane today. Earlier today Hanna showed some very strong convection but since that has seemed to blow herself out. Considering that her motion has been nearly stationary it seems likely that the increased winds due to the convective burst in turn caused turbulent upwelling of cold water from below. This cold upwelling has likely combined with moderate to strong shear to limit Hanna's strength.

Hanna - Infrared satellite

Considering the near stationary motion and relatively high shear in the short term, strengthening seems unlikely. I'm actually going to go against the National Hurricane Center in this forecast and predict Hanna to weaken to a strong tropical storm at some point tomorrow due to the mixing of the cold water from below.

Hanna - Watches and Warnings

NHC also recently commented that the model tracks look surprisingly well clustered at this time. I don't know what model tracks they have been looking at, but they are not the same ones that I am seeing! The models are calling for landfall anywhere from Havana to Cape Hatteras! At this point anyone with interests from Cocoa, FL to the Outer Banks, NC should continue to monitor Hanna closely. Given the proximity of Hanna to the Gulf Stream, it seems likely that Hanna will maintain her strength or strengthen in her final approach to shore... no matter what her strength at that time.

To see all the models and charts for Hurricane Gustav, check out the Hanna charts page.

Click for full size model imagery:

Hanna - Track Forecast

Hanna - Wind Speed Forecast

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Ike is looking like an unimpressive storm still slowly moving toward the western Atlantic. Fortunately for us, we still have a long time to watch the storm. Gradual intensification seems likely, but without a landmass in the way Ike will likely remain a spatially compact storm in the short to medium term.

20080902.0215.goes12.x.ir1km.09LIKE.45kts-1005mb-179N-409W.100pc.jpgbr>Ike - Infrared satellite

Ike currently is packing maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, but gradual strengthening is likely over the next couple of days. However, we have little to go by in making this forecast other than climatological norms.

To see all the models and charts for Tropical Storm Ike, check out the Ike charts page.

Ike - Watches and Warnings
Click for full size model imagery:

Ike - Track Forecast

Ike - Wind Speed Forecast

Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink