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Tropical Storm Dolly is ready to open her eye

It looks like Texas may have lucked out. Tropical Storm Dolly is slowly strengthening and near hurricane force at this time. Currently winds are listed at 70 mph, but this seems like a conservative estimate. Dolly is likely now a Category 1 hurricane. Microwave imagery has been showing banding encircling the center of circulation all day.

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Dolly - Infrared satellite

Dolly is setting up as a storm with a very broad circulation and her eye, when it opens, it going to be huge. This is not conducive to rapid intensification. It likely that Dolly will only be a category 1 hurricane at landfall. While she is becoming better organized, she is not in a very threatening position at this time. Visible satellite imagery clearly shows just how large her eye is going to be.

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Dolly - Visible satellite

Dolly - Watches and Warnings

The dynamical models have done a good job forecasting Dolly's track. At this point a landfall just south of Brownsville as a category 1 hurricane seems likely.

Click for full size model imagery:

Dolly - Track Forecast

Dolly - Wind Speed Forecast

Cheers,
Bryan Woods


Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink