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Tropics remain quiet

Although we got an early start to the 2008 hurricane season, things have since slowed down and returned to normal. I spent quite some time this morning scouring through the models and satellite images looking for some signs of tropical development, but none was to be found. The only action in the Atlantic is a weak upper level low moving from the Bahamas across South Florida today. Conditions are not favorable for development as the low enters the Gulf of Mexico.

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Atlantic visible satellite

It is still very early in the season. Usually we wouldn't have seen a single storm by this point. Considering that the official long term 'forecasts' all called for climatology, this season remains unremarkable. We're still a couple months away from things getting very exciting.

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Hurricane frequency by date (Credit: NOAA)

If you're looking for tropical development in the Atlantic at this time of year, your best bet is looking in the southern Gulf and western Caribbean. It is still very early to see development in the Atlantic proper. Wind shear is still strong at higher latitudes and the central Atlantic has yet to warm to temperatures conducive for tropical development.

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June hurricane genesis index and locations (Emanuel and Nolan 2004)


Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink