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Noel will miss Florida, but not Canada

Yikes, has it really been more than a month since we've posted??

The reasons for this are twofold:
1. It's been a rather boring second half of the hurricane season. This season, there has been 30% less cyclone days than an average year.
2. Life gets hectic sometimes. I was in Bermuda for the summer and when I got back, I had to deal with TheFiancee moving in, TheFiancee finishing up her Master's Degree on top of the normal stuff, like Penn State football and graduate school. Bryan has also been up to his ears in work this semester. All in all, not the best times for us to be posting. That said, we here at the StormTrack apologize for our lack of posting and will try to do a better job from now on.

With all of that business aside, let's talk about Noel. Currently, Noel is spinning just off the coast of Cuba, where it is nearly stationary. The thunderstorm activity you see in the infrared satellite image (Figure 1) is displaced to the northeast of the center due to southwesterly wind shear.

Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of Noel. Bright colors indicate the highest cloud tops of thunderstorms.

From here, Noel will have a chance to intensify for the next twenty-four hours or so. It is possible that tropical storm force winds will reach the east coast of Florida, but these will not have severe effects. However, that said, there is a tropical storm watch posted from Ocean Reef, FL to Jupiter Inlet, FL. Residents of Florida should be aware of the high winds, but not much damage is expected.

After that, Noel will turn quickly to the northeast and away from the Continental United States. By Friday and Saturday however, both Bermuda and Canadian Maritimes will have to deal with a powerful extratropical storm (Figures 2 and 3), as Noel is forecast to undergo extratropical transition and possibly become a warm seclusion.

Figure 2. Noel - Track Forecast

Figure 3. Noel - Wind Speed Forecast

A warm seclusion is large, symmetrical storm that often forms at high latitudes when there is sufficient warm water. You can think of it like a circular warm front. Warm seclusions often have large wind fields and winds near hurricane strength in the center. Still, this is an extratropical storm, albeit a formidible one. An example is shown below, with the red line showing the warm front and blue showing the cold front.

Figure 4. An example of a warm seclusion. Note that the red line is the warm front and blue is the cold front.

Posted by Adam Moyer | Permalink