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Tropical Depression Six heading toward Caribbean

The disturbance in the central Atlantic has finally strengthened in Tropical Depression Six and is continuing to organize. The system is currently just below tropical storm strength and is expected to continue to strengthen as the circulation consolidates. The current forecast track brings TD Six into the Caribbean and along a track generally consistent with Dean.

NHC Cone - 3-Day w/Watches and Warnings

TD Six is showing much better organization now than it was showing earlier today. Convection seems to be forming around the center of circulation and TD Six seems poised to become a tropical storm shortly.

Infrared satellite

The forecast track is consistent with the computer models, but there is a great deal of spread after 36 hours, likely due to disagreement in the systems strength. It seems unlikely that we will get a reliable track forecast until TD Six has a change to organize and better define its circulation.

Model forecast tracks

The newest model, the HWRF, doesn't seem to think much with happen with TD Six. However, I see no reason to discount the system at this time. My official forecast calls for TD Six to reach hurricane strength over the Caribbean.

Model forecast tracks

More charts are available on our TD Six Charts Page or the charts archive.

Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink