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Potential storm for the East Coast brewing off the coast of Florida

As a heads up, there is an area of disturbed weather churning a few hundred miles off the Florida coast that could come into play in the near future. An area of thunderstorms have been persisting for a couple of days and has been becoming slowly better organized. Recent satellite imagery is showing a system that is starting to look a lot like a developing tropical depression.

Invest 99L - Infrared satellite

Some of the most reliable computer models are calling for the system to strengthen into a minor hurricane and move toward the North Carolina coast over the next five days. It is entirely too early to give substantial credit to these models, but I definitely consider it worth noting to all those with interests in the area. While I put little to no faith in the intensity and development forecasts from the models, all of the models that I trust for track forecasts are bring the system toward North Carolina.

Invest 99L - Track Forecast

Invest 99L - Archived Track Forecast

Should the system develop and move up toward North Carolina, it would likely impact most of the East Coast north of the Carolinas. Below is a predicted wind swath from the new Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast model. Note that the green and yellow areas are where hurricane force are predicted... especially along the North Carolina and New England coasts.

Invest 99L - HWRF forecast wind swath

We'll be keeping an eye on this system and I expect to see Hurricane Hunters dispatched tomorrow. In the interim, check back for updates and we'll keep the charts running in our operational chart archive until we get the pretty looking page posted.

Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink