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Humberto makes Texas landfall, TD Eight sucking on dry air

Starting again in numeric order, TD Eight in the Atlantic is looking a lot less healthy than yesterday. As predicted, it seems to be choking on a healthy dose of dry air from the north. Convection has seriously shut down and all that seems to remain is residual outflow.

20070913.1345.goes12.x.ir1km.08LNONAME.30kts-1006mb-138N-477W.100pc.jpg
TD Eight - Infrared satellite

At this point a general west-northwestward track with likely dissipation is expected. It is too early to give a much more definitive forecast at this point, but I'll be happy to put my neck on the line later if I see a bit better defined circulation.


TD Eight- Track Forecast

TD Eight - Wind Speed Forecast

Currently there are no watches or warning associated with TD Eight, but keep checking back for updates.


TD Eight - Watches and Warnings

The other new system we are watching is now Hurricane Humberto. I honestly didn't expect Humberto to strengthen quite so rapidly. Humberto is now over land so his day of surprise is over. This is just another reminder how much heat really is in the Gulf of Mexico, ready to fuel these unpredictable storms.

20070913.1345.goes12.x.ir1km.09LHUMBERTO.65kts-987mb-303N-936W.100pc.jpg
Humberto - Infrared satellite

This system will bring additional unwanted rain to the area and is unlikely to exit very quickly. It is looking more and more clear that Humberto is going to hand around the Gulf Coast area for at least the next couple of days. This poses some serious questions about how much rain will fall over the area and what will happen to what is left of the circulation after that point. While Humberto will be continually weakening, the medium range forecast looks very uncertain.


Humberto- Track Forecast

Humberto - Wind Speed Forecast

Hurricane and tropical storm advisories linger for parts of the Gulf Coast. Check below for details. This late warning potential has been a topic of discussion amongst tropical storm forecasters in recent days, and today will likely liven up that debate.


TD Nine - Watches and Warnings

Check back for updates and we'll keep the charts (including model forecasts) coming on our charts page.


Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink