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Flossie, Dean and Erin; oh my!

Let's quickly visit Flossie. She has been recently downgraded to a tropical storm as she impacted Hawaii and her only threat is likely to be rain.

Flossie's track remains in line with previous forecasts. Hurricane Watches have been discontinued for the Big island but Tropical Storm Warnings remain. As a whole, Flossie should bring some very beneficial rain to the area.

In the Atlantic, we now have two tropical storms to deal with. Tropical Storm Dean seems to be getting his act together and is undergoing a period of organization and intensification. Dean has been steadily intensifying and is now packing winds of 60 mph.

Interests in the Caribbean should pay close attention to Dean as he is likely to become a very dangerous hurricane heading their way. Dean is already showing the start of an eyewall structure and could become a hurricane at any time.

As a fair warning, the models have been showing surprisingly strong agreement in forecast Dean to progress to the west and steadily intensify to a major hurricane. Shear has been limiting the systems development but is lifting and will continue to do so. I am forecasting Dean to steadily strengthen into a major hurricane as it moves toward the Caribbean.

Below are the model forecast charts which will automatically update:

While Dean is a serious, but distance threat to the Atlantic, there is now Tropical Storm Erin roaming the Gulf of Mexico. Convection has become steady around a weak circulation in the Gulf, so advisories have been issued. TD Five became Erin this morning after hurricane hunters investigated, but the system remains only a borderline tropical storm. Interestingly, Erin is showing banding structure in her convection. We will continue to close monitor this system for changes in organization.

Erin is over a very favorable area for strengthening, however, it is unlikely to have time to reach its full potential. For a weak storm to really reach hurricane strength, it needs more time to solidify and develop its supporting circulation. Regardless of a lack of time, a Tropical Storm Warning has already been issued for much of south Texas. Landfall is expected during the afternoon Thursday.

Below are computer model forecasts for TS Erin which will update automatically:

Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink