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Hurricane Flossie on track to clip Hawaii, Tropical Storm Dean forms in the Atlantic

Hurricane Flossie is showing amazing fortitude as she is hanging on to strength in the Central Pacific. Currently Flossie is listed with sustained winds of 110 mph. The Air Force has actually deployed two hurricane hunters to Hawaii on a special mission to track Flossie, so we know the government is taking the threat seriously. Flossie is starting to show some slight weakening as her eye has started to fill in.

Given the current forecast it looks as if Flossie will be nearly missing Hawaii, but will do so at hurricane strength. Given the close proximity of Flossie, a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for all of the Big Island. Already the Big Island is seeing upslope flow and rain associate with Flossie on the northeast shore, with more on the way.

In the Atlantic, Tropical Depression Four has shifted convection to the east and is being reclassified as Tropical Storm Dean with winds of 40 mph. While the convection is not as strong as before, it is not better centered over the center of circulation. It seems that Dean's center of circulation has actually shifted, causing the recentering, and this shift should help Dean to organize and strengthen. On its current track, interests in the Caribbean should pay close attention to Dean.

As a fair warning, the models show surprisingly strong agreement in forecast Dean to progress to the west and steadily intensify. Shear has been limiting the systems development but it has begun to lift and will continue to do so.

Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink