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Hurricane Dean weakening over land

6PM EDT Wednesday update: Dean made a second landfall in Mexico this morning about 40 miles south-southeast of Tuxpan (wherever the heck that is), this time with 100 mph winds. The forecast expects Dean to steadily weaken over Mexico and could bring heavy rains to an already soaked Texas over the next few days.

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11PM EDT update: Dean is back out over the Bay of Campeche and is slowly redeveloping a large ragged eye. Due to his quick speed, Dean is unlikely to be able to reach major hurricane strength again, so the worst may be over with this storm. Currently winds are listed at about 80 mph, but those are expected to go up slightly before landfall.

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GOES infrared

Otherwise, the previous forecast is on track. See below for details.

Previous Discussion:

Dean came ashore near the cruise ship port of Costa Maya early this morning with sustained winds of 167 mph and a central pressure of 906 mb. According to NHC:

SOME HISTORIC NOTES ARE IN ORDER HERE. THE 906 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE IS THE NINTH LOWEST ON RECORD FOR AN ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE...AND THE THIRD LOWEST AT LANDFALL BEHIND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND HURRICANE GILBERT OF 1988 IN CANCUN MEXICO. DEAN IS ALSO THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE ANDREW OF 1992.

Currently NHC is listing Dean with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph and a central pressure of 950 mb.

Dean should maintain hurricane status all the way across the Yucatan and reemerge in the Bay of Campeche as a borderline Cat. 1 / 2 where he is likely to reintensify before a second landfall in Mexico. There are many watches and warning currently active. Please check the NHC advisory chart for details.


NHC Cone - 3-Day w/Watches and Warnings

Dean's eye has closed in as he is weakening over land, but his circulation and convection both remain strong. He certainly is intense enough to restrengthen when he emerges over water.

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Infrared satellite

More charts are available on our Hurricane Dean Charts Page.


Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink