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Dean Preparing to Make Landfall on Jamaica

Update 8:00pm EDT: Dean is still being maintained with maximum winds of 145 mph but his pressure is still creeping up and now at 930 mb. This weakening is likely indicative of his double eyewall structure and the influence of land as he grazes Jamaica. Dean is still expected to strengthen when he moves away from the island and is likely to reach Category 5 intensity at some point in the next two days. While Dean looks slightly less intense than before, he still is exhibiting amazing symmetry and is a powerful storm. Considering his proximity to land, I am surprised Dean has held up so well.

20070819.2245.goes12.x.ir1km.04LDEAN.125kts-930mb-171N-760W.100pc.jpgInfrared satellite

I personally have been traveling all day and just arrived at an American Meteorological Society meeting in Portland, OR. (For those that care, the meeting is joint between the Middle Atmosphere and Air-Sea Interaction groups.) During my layover in Denver I saw a full-size jumbo jet going bound for Cancun load up only about half a dozen passengers and then leave. If this flight is any indication, people are taking Dean seriously and staying away.

The models are trending further and further south with every run and most now bring Dean will into Mexico. However, there are some interesting inconsistencies in the various model runs and some of the most reliable models are bringing Dean more northward and onshore near Brownsville, TX.

Model forecast tracks

There are many watches and warning currently active. Please check the NHC advisory chart for details.

NHC Cone - 3-Day w/Watches and Warnings

Update, 1215pm EDT, Sunday: Hurricane Dean continues to approach Jamaica, winds are holding at 145mph but central pressure has ticked up slightly to 926mb. Still a strong category four hurricane. More coming as i develops.

Hurricane Dean is approaching Jamaica and the first rainbands should be there soon. How Dean tracks over the next 12 hours will determine if Jamaica is spared the worst or gets hit directly with a Category Four/Five hurricane.

USAF Hurricane Hunters put Dean at 921mb of central pressure and maximum sustained winds of 145mph. Another USAF Reserve Reconnaissance unit will be investigating Dean shortly. Satellite presentation is pretty good with nice, even, spiral bands in all directions. The eye is a little cloudy due to the previously mentioned eyewall replacement which is common with large storms.

Satellite image is below and more charts are available on our Hurricane Dean Charts Page.

Hurricane Dean Visible Satellite

Posted by Jordan Golson | Permalink