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Dean Category Five Today?

Update 1105am, Monday: The 11am advisory has been released and it's basically an update of the previous notice. Dean is at 150 mph, all indications are of further strengthening to Category Five in the next few hours. A USAF Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to fly into Dean to investigate this afternoon and we'll know more after that. Pressure ticked down slightly to 925mb.

Virtually all models are in agreement bringing Dean directly across the Yucatan and then making landfall again in Old Mexico. Conditions in the gulf are such that Dean may re-strengthen to major hurricane status before making final landfall.

I'm waiting for the 11am full advisory to be released before writing more but here's an update: Dean is currently rated at 150mph and 926mb which is almost Category 5 strength.

The National Hurricane Center noted at 8AM that Dean is passing over areas that are pretty much entirely conducive to further strengthening: Weak shear, very warm waters and he "exhibits a classic upper-tropospheric outflow pattern" (the pretty spirals).

Here's a very nice visible satellite shot of Dean. Note the relatively rare "stadium" eye.


IR Satellite Shot of Dean


Posted by Jordan Golson | Permalink