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Tropical Storm Barry forms in Gulf, headed toward Florida

12PM Update: Barry has come ashore in Florida and is now only a tropical depression. The system should be reclassified as extratropical and I expect advisories to be discontinued within the next 12 hours. Over the new few days the remnants of Barry will trek up the East Coast and bring some much needed rainfall to many areas along the way.

12AM Update: NHC upgraded Barry's maximum sustained winds to 50 mph based on recent aircraft recon. Based on satellite imagery I am still not impressed. Barry is likely to bring soaking rains to Florida but little more. The previously evident convection has since been sheared off the storm and I am not convinced that this system is even a tropical storm.

Happy first day of Hurricane Season! And we actually have a tropical storm to talk about to boot! This afternoon a hurricane hunter recon flight found Barry to be a subtropical storm but since that time further convection has developed leading to Barry's classification as a full tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Barry has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is on course to make landfall in Florida. Initial advisories list Barry as a fairly weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds and forecast the storm to make landfall in northern Florida. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are also in effect for the Gulf coast of the Florida peninsula at this time.

Convection has recently flared near the center of circulation and the system now looks like a tropical storm. While the storm may not be pretty, he is definitely there now.

There isn't a whole lot of warm water out in the Gulf right now for this system to work with, however water are marginally warm enough to support a tropical storm. The canonical minimum sea surface temperature (SST) for tropical development is 26 degrees C, but this is very much a loose number that depends on conditions aloft. As we can see, these warm water have been just enough to support a minimal tropical storm.

The potential track of this system should take its broad circulation over Florida and Georgia. This a potential for this storm to bring much needed rainfall to an area that has been seeing numerous fire outbreaks over the last month. It seems very unlikely that Barry will strengthen much further so damage should be light to non-existent.

Note: If the model charts are not present, please give them time. Model charts can take up to an hour to post for newly named storms.

Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink