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Gulf of Mexico disturbance heading toward Florida

Happy first day of Hurricane Season! Now I have something to do until November 30! On another season-related note, StormTrack contributor Adam Moyer should be arriving in Bermuda today where he will work as a forecaster for the Bermuda weather service for hurricane season. Good luck, Adam!

There is still an area of disturbed weather crossing the Gulf of Mexico heading toward Florida. The National Hurricane Center has schedule an aircraft recon flight this afternoon on what I would describe as a fishing mission. If this system does organize a little bit more, it seems likely that NHC will upgrade the storm to Tropical Storm Barry, though I can't say that I am very impressed at this time. If this storm does form, it will be weak and is unlikely to bring any damage. On the other side of the issue, it could indeed bring some very beneficial rain to Florida.

There isn't a whole lot of warm water out in the Gulf right now for this system to work with, however water are marginally warm enough to support a tropical storm. The canonical minimum sea surface temperature (SST) for tropical development is 26 degrees C, but this is very much a loose number that depends on conditions aloft.

The potential track of this system should take its broad circulation over Florida and Georgia. This a potential for this storm to bring much needed rainfall to an area that has been seeing numerous fire outbreaks over the last month.


Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink