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Andrea Staying Put

Andrea has continued to churn this afternoon off the Southeast U.S. coast. The storm is nearly stationary, wobbling ever so much to the west. The bigger development this afternoon has been the complete dissolution of convection on the western flank of the storm (Figure 1). My best guess for the reason why the convection died so quickly is that the storm was ingesting very dry air that is in place along the East Coast and the dry air stabilized the mid-levels of the atmosphere.

Figure 1. Infrared satellite image from 5PM EDT. Notice the lack of any high thunderstorm clouds west of the center of circulation (which is marked by an "L"). (Courtesy NRL)

Andrea is forecast to weaken over the next few days, with most models and NHC agreeing that it will dissipate by late Thursday or early Friday. As it weakens, Andrea is forecast to remain on its slow, westward track.

3-day model track forecasts
3-day model wind forecasts

So long as the storm stays alive, we'll keep posting updates. Stay tuned to the StormTrack for more!

Posted by Adam Moyer | Permalink