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Andrea slowly reorganizing

At 3:00PM EDT, the National Hurricane Center issued a special statement saying that the remnants of Andrea have not yet reformed into a tropical depression. I tend to agree with this assessment but also recognize that the process of reformation has begun. All day we have been looking at more steady convection focused at the center of Andrea's remnant circulation. Outflow is now present and convection has continued to persist.


GOES visible image of Andrea's circulation

At this rate Andrea should redevelop into a tropical depression by tomorrow morning if the convection persists. The circulation is located over a strip of warm water fed by the Gulf Stream which is sustaining the current burst in convection. I am trying not to let my imagination take control, but the latest TRMM microwave scan of the convective burst seems to reveal features that look like developing bands radiating from the center of convection.


85GHz TRMM image of Andrea's circulation. Note the bright convective spot and possible developing bands.

If Andrea does redevelop she will likely stay around the coast of Florida for the next day or so before moving out to sea and merging with a Nor'Easter. Redevelopment is being forecast by multiple computer models, which have thus far handled Andrea well. However, forecast models are known to have serious problems with subtropical systems like Andrea. We will continue to monitor the remnants of Andrea and keep the site updated. Check back with us for more news tonight and tomorrow morning. This evening should be crucial for any redevelopment. There is an aircraft recon mission scheduled for tomorrow morning if current conditions persist.


Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink