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Severe wind storm expected in the Northeast tomorrow

The latest forecast discussion from the National Weather Service's office for the New York City area (KOKX):

LATEST MODELS FROM 00Z IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. GFS IS DEEPER WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE WITH 17 MB PRESSURE DROP IN 12 HOURS BETWEEN 06Z
AND 18Z. NAM NMM-WRF IS NOT AS DEEP BY 10 MB COME 18Z...BUT BASIC
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO GFS. CANADIAN GEM IS EVEN DEEPER THAN GFS BY A
FEW MB. MM5 DETERMINISTIC RUN IS SIMILAR NAM...BUT A FEW MB DEEPER.

GFS SOLUTION IS FASTER BY ABOUT 4 HOURS WITH THE FROPA AND SURGE OF
THE COLD AIR AND IS MODEL OF CHOICE FOR DETERMINISTIC GRIDS. FEELING
OF HPC AND OTHER NWS OFFICE IS THAT GFS IS CORRECT WITH THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT - LIKE THE CANADIAN GEM.

WARM SECTOR OVER DELMARVA RACES NORTHEAST TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 850 HPA WINDS APPROACH HISTORICAL LEVELS IN NAM
OF 100 KT JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AS OF 18Z...STILL A VERY
ANOMALOUS 80 KT FORECAST IN THE GFS. 925 HPA WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80
KT IN NAM AND 70 KT IN GFS. 925 HPA LEVEL IS ONLY ABOUT 1500 FT OFF
THE SURFACE AT THAT TIME DUE TO THE LOW SURFACE PRESSURE.

CRUX OF THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MIXING WILL OCCUR. SEEN MANY A TIME
WHEN LITTLE MIXES DOWN. THINKING IS THAT THIS CASE IS DIFFERENCE
BECAUSE OF:

1) THE EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS JUST WEST OF THE REGION THAT WILL
ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT AGEOSTROPHIC ACCELERATIONS INTO THE LOW.
2) WATER TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 50S TO 60 ALLOWS FOR MIXING.
3) HIGHLY ANOMALOUS SITUATION.
4) CONVECTION IN FINE LINE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TO ENHANCE AND MIX
WINDS.

WE HAVE EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH BACK INTO NEW YORK CITY...BUT
CONFIDENCE HERE IS ONLY ABOUT 50%. GREATEST CONCERN IS FOR EASTERN
LONG ISLAND WHERE CONFIDENCE IS 70%. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET A GUST TO
NEAR 50 KT GUSTS IN THE CITY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN QUEENS AND
BROOKLYN. VERRAZANO BRIDGE (ALONG WITH OTHER BRIDGES) COULD HAVE
PROBLEMS. ALSO TALL BUILDING OF MANHATTAN WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO
PREPARE FOR HIGH WINDS.


Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink