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Cimaron delivers a Halloween trick

It seems the Vietnamese authorities really need to invest some more money in weather forecasting. Today the government of Vietnam was preparing for mass evacuations of coastal residents in fear of Typhoon Cimaron. However, I think they may be a little confused, although caution could be the better part of valor. After hitting the Philippines, Cimaron is now spinning in the South China Sea. The AP is reporting more on the evacuations:

HANOI, Vietnam (AP) — Vietnam braced for Typhoon Cimaron and planned mass evacuations after the storm slammed the northern Philippines, leaving at least 15 people dead in landslides and flooding, state media reported Tuesday.

Originally a super typhoon, Cimaron quickly lost strength after slamming ashore in the northeastern Philippine province of Isabela late Sunday and cutting across Luzon island Monday with winds of 75 mph and gusts of up to 130 mph.

Philippine forecasters said that it could intensify over the South China Sea before making landfall along Vietnam's central coast by Saturday morning.

At least 15 people drowned or were killed by falling trees and another 15 were injured in the northern Philippines, local officials reported.

Tuesday's Communist Party newspaper Nhan Dan (People) quoted Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Sinh Hung as telling disaster officials that evacuation of people from high-risk areas must be completed by Thursday afternoon.

The deputy prime minister also ordered provincial governments to recall fishing boats still operating in the South China Sea and banned other fishing boats from leaving port.

Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, who is currently in China, dispatched Deputy Prime Minister Truong Vinh Trong to the central region to direct emergency operations, Nhan Dan said.

Last month's Typhoon Xangsane left 230 people dead and missing as it ripped through Manila and neighboring provinces and later killed 69 people in central Vietnam.

However, I can't agree with their forecast. Below is a look at Cimaron's current location. Note how far north in the South China Sea the typhoon already is.

The US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center's forecasts up until the most recent advisory (after Vietnam decided that it was time to panic) had been calling for a landfall near Hong Kong. However, the latest advisory is far more tricky. Now Cimaron is forecast to approach the coast and be sheared apart while turning to the west and losing strength and possibly never making landfall. Any guesses?

Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink