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TD Six only slightly better organized

As I predicted this morning, TD Six never became a tropical storm today, despite what NHC said. Tonight the depression is looking just as vulnerable but has consolidated slightly. While convection is no longer scattered, the area of centralized convection is only marginally supportive of depression status.

Below are also the latest model runs which continue consistently to call for a WNW track with steady strengthening.

As you can see below, NHC's latest advisory seems to be nothing more than a blind adherence to the models. However, it is still hard to offer more than that at this time. The track forecast has been "good" considering the extreme difficulty locating a center, but intensification has not yet occured.

Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink