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TD Six becomes Florence

As NHC has noted, the newly dubbed Florence continues to have a very large circulation which often slows strengthening. With a large circulation, more angular momentum gained from Coriolis turning is needed to create a strong circulation and strengthening. Only in the last few hours has convection strengthened near the broad center of circulation. However, this area of convection is still small and Florence is still a weak tropical storm.

However, this area of convection is not over the center of circulation. A quick look at the latest microwave satellite pass shows the center of circulation to be displaced to the southwest of the convection.

Below are also the latest model runs which continue consistently to call for a WNW recurving track with steady strengthening.

The models to this point have continued to over forecast Florence's strengthening. In the short term I see no reason for their forecasts to be any more accurate. However, in the long term strengthening is still expected. Florence has also hugged the southern and western edge of the guidance envelope. This bias is accounted for in NHC's latest advisory track. The Southeast US remains well within the sights of Florence, however, most models forecast recurvature that misses land completely. At this point we are still days away from being able to make any landfall forecast.

Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink