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Status quo Flo

Remember what I said at dinner time last night?

I am growing tired of Florence. Her convection is back up again and NHC is again beating the war drum talking about steady strengthening starting now. Sure... Automatic Dvorak estimates still don't show a much different system than before.

Well here is what Avila had to say last night in the forecast discussion.
I CANNOT FIND ANY REAL GOOD REASON WHY FLORENCE HAS NOT YET INTENSIFIED SINCE THE INGREDIENTS COMMONLY USED TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING ARE PRESENT. THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM...ABOUT 29 DEGREES CELSIUS ACCORDING TO NEARBY BUOYS...THE SHEAR IS LOW...AND
THERE IS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...RELIABLE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING INTENSIFICATION FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BEGUN TO
BACK OFF A LITTLE. THE ONLY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL ARE THE TEMPERATURES AT THE UPPER LEVELS...AND THE HUMIDITY. HAVING SAID THAT...I HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING AGAIN.

I think that pretty well sums things up. It is worth mentioning that there has been some slight strengthening in recent hours, but hardly anything to get excited about.

Below are also the latest model runs which continue consistently to call for a WNW recurving track with steady strengthening, but missing the mainland. No surprise there.

The velocity charts seem to be not generating correctly due to a bad data point of some sort so I included the next model run here which will load when the run becomes available.

The models to this point have continued to over forecast Florence's strengthening, and I see no reason to believe them now. I would like to stress that the forecast track is low confidence, but becoming higher confidence with time. The track forecast has been fairly consistent and more accurate calling for Florence to curve harmlessly out to sea.


Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink