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Florence wavering

Perhaps the lack of upper level outflow should have been a clue before, but Florence is looking much less healthy lately. Maximum sustained winds remain at 50 mph, but the convection has died down considerably. Right now mid-level shear and dry air are acting to limit Florence's strengthening. Once again it is worth noting that the models are calling for those limiting factors to slacken... again.

Below are also the latest model runs which continue consistently to call for a WNW recurving track with steady strengthening.

The models to this point have continued to over forecast Florence's strengthening, and I see no reason to believe them now. I would like to stress that the forecast track is low confidence, but becoming higher confidence with time. The track forecast has been fairly consistent and more accurate calling for Florence to curve harmlessly out to sea.

Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink