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Florence, the tease

I am growing tired of Florence. Her convection is back up again and NHC is again beating the war drum talking about steady strengthening starting now. Sure... Automatic Dvorak estimates still don't show a much different system than before. With that said, the convection now is located more above the center of circulation although that center has been very hard to find.

Below are also the latest model runs which continue consistently to call for a WNW recurving track with steady strengthening, but missing the mainland.

The models to this point have continued to over forecast Florence's strengthening, and I see no reason to believe them now. I would like to stress that the forecast track is low confidence, but becoming higher confidence with time. The track forecast has been fairly consistent and more accurate calling for Florence to curve harmlessly out to sea.

Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink