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Florence strengthens slightly, still weak storm

Recent bursts of convection in the outer circulation of Florence has resulted in a slight strengthening to 45 mph sustained winds. Due to the distance of the convective burst from the center of circulation, strengthening is expected to remain minimal in the short term. While there are no signs of banding or complex organization at this time, tomorrow could bring a much different picture.

Below are also the latest model runs which continue consistently to call for a WNW recurving track with steady strengthening.

The models to this point have continued to over forecast Florence's strengthening. In the short term I see no reason for their forecasts to be any more accurate. However, in the long term strengthening is still expected. I would like to stress that the forecast track is low confidence. At this point we are still days away from being able to make any landfall forecast. However, if I had to make a guess, I think this storm will stay off shore and pass somewhere near Bermuda. Beware that we are talking about a low confidence guess here. The coast from North Carolina to Nova Scotia is very much in play here.

Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink