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Florence passing Bermuda, TD 7 on the edge

Florence has finally started to move away from Bermuda and remains a category 1 hurricane with winds hovering around 90 mph. All considered, there has been very little change in strength over the last 24 hours. It is worth noting that sustained hurricane force winds have been reported on Bermuda.

From here Florence is likely to pass harmlessly out to sea in the North Atlantic and soon weaken.

Now what about the new Tropical Depression Seven? Reports indicate that TD Seven may be very near or over hurricane strength. However, the convection has died down and NHC is awaiting a hurricane hunter report on the depression.

TD Seven has a very small circulation that is actually too small to be well captured by most of the forecast models. At this point the BAM models are probably providing the best track forecasts and intensity forecasts are a crap shoot. The BAM only shows what would happen if the depression were to float along in the general flow and not influence that flow at all. However, the BAM models are all over the place, indicating a great deal of vertical shear to come. Accounting for this, the track forecast is very low confidence.

Model charts for Tropical Depression Seven are available at: http://thestormtrack.com/tropical/aal072006/

TD Seven is forecast to become a tropical storm tomorrow and quickly recurve out to sea. It is worth noting that Bermuda is one again inside NHC's forecast cone for TD Seven. However, as previously mentioned this is a low confidence forecast from NHC. TD Seven may never recurve and could head directly at the United States.


Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink