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Florence likely a hurricane, NHC in denial

All recent satellite estimates suggest that Florence is now a hurricane but NHC is maintaining her as a strong tropical storm. From NHC's discussion:

SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 65 KT... 77 KT... AND 90 KT FROM SAB... TAFB... AND AFWA... RESPECTIVELY... SUGGEST THAT FLORENCE COULD BE A HURRICANE. HOWEVER... AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS TILTED 12-18 NMI NORTHWEST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND THAT THERE WAS NO EYE FEATURE PRESENT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ONLY NUDGED UPWARD SLIGHTLY AND AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AROUND 18Z WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT FLORENCE IS A HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALSO
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY MODELS.

Below are also the latest model runs which are calling for Florence to strike Bermuda.

The velocity forecasts yield no surprises. Strengthening has been the forecast all week.

With all of this said, the cone of doom is locked squarely onto Bermuda where hurricane watches have been posted. Best of luck!


Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink