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Florence begins strengthening trend

It appears that the strong convection outside of Florence's center is finally starting to wrap inward. With winds now up to 50 mph, it looks as if Florence is entering into a pronounced strengthening trend. Clouds tops are very cold signaling strong convection and outflow looks decent, although not spectacular.

Below are also the latest model runs which continue consistently to call for a WNW recurving track with steady strengthening.

The models to this point have continued to over forecast Florence's strengthening, although the trend has been upward. I would like to stress that the forecast track is low confidence, but becoming higher confidence with time. If I had to make a guess, I think this storm will stay off shore and pass somewhere near Bermuda. Beware that we are talking about a low confidence guess here. The coast from North Carolina to Nova Scotia is very much in play here.

Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink