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Florence appears poised to strengthen

Florence's circulation remains broad and ill defined, but two recent bursts of convection could be indicating a strengthening phase underway. Once the lower circulation has a chance to catch up with the new convective bursts, we could be seeing a much better organized system. While there are no signs of banding or complex organization at this time, tomorrow could bring a much different picture. It is worth noting that the estimated center of circulation is actually located somewhere between the two convective plumes.

Below are also the latest model runs which continue consistently to call for a WNW recurving track with steady strengthening.

The models to this point have continued to over forecast Florence's strengthening. In the short term I see no reason for their forecasts to be any more accurate. However, in the long term strengthening is still expected. Florence has also hugged the southern and western edge of the guidance envelope. This bias is accounted for in NHC's latest advisory track. The Southeast US remains well within the sights of Florence, however, most models forecast recurvature that misses land completely. At this point we are still days away from being able to make any landfall forecast. However, if I had to make a guess, I think this storm will stay off shore. Beware that we are talking about a low confidence guess here. The coast from North Carolina to Nova Scotia is very much in play here.

Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink