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Worth Keeping an Eye On

There are some interesting features in the tropical Atlantic this afternoon. The first is the remnants of Tropical Storm Chris (Figure 1). While there is no mid-level circulation associated with this system, there is still strong low-level rotation. Anytime a system with this much low-level rotation enters a region of low shear (Figure 2) and high sea-surface temperatures (>31ºC), it is worth keeping an eye on. NHC is mildly concerned about this storm redeveloping. I'd give it about a 20% chance of reintensifying.

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Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the remnants of Tropical Storm Chris. Notice the thunderstorm activity is displaced to the south of the storm, a sign that Chris is not organized.
Shear_6Aug_15Z_Chris.GIF
Figure 2. Shear analysis over the Gulf of Mexico from UW-CIMSS.

The other feature is a tropical wave located about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles (Figure 3). The computer models are forecasting this to become Tropical Storm Debby over the next 48 hours or so (Figure 4). Since this disturbance is, again, in a low shear, high sea-surface temperature environment, there is potential for development (Figure 5). The limiting factor for this system will be dry air. There is a strong Saharan Air Layer to the north of this disturbance (Figure 6). For deep intensification, this air will have to be kept out of the center of the storm. I'd give this storm about a 65% chance of developing. Enjoy the rest of your weekend and stay tuned to the StormTrack for more.

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Figure 3. Infrared satellite image of the disturbance in the Central Atlantic. There is no defined center of circulation at this point.
Shear_6Aug_15Z_91.GIF
Figure 5. Shear analysis over the Central Atlantic from UW-CIMSS.
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Figure 6. Saharan Air Layer analysis over the Central Atlantic from UW-CIMSS. Hotter colors indicate drier, dustier air. Notice how much dry air is to the north of the disturbance.


Posted by Adam Moyer | Permalink