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Tropical Storm Chris still weak

ADAM UPDATE (6PM EDT): Hurricane hunter aircraft have found a minimum central pressure of 1003 mb and flight level winds of 64 knots at the center of Tropical Storm Chris. This translates to winds of about 50 kts (57 mph) at the surface. The official NHC forecast now calls for Chris to become a hurricane in 3 days.

NHC really screwed up my vBookie account when it issued advisories on Tropical Storm Chris. I still am not ready to call Chris a true tropical storm, but feel it is worthy of depression status. Right now NHC is maintaining Chris as a weak tropical storm with sustained winds of 45 mph. Sea level pressures in this area remain very high to be calling this a storm or forecasting development, with Chris currently at 1009 mb when 1013 mb represents your average sunny day. Regardless of strength, whatever develops from this area with slowly drift toward the northwest.

A quick look at the satellite imagery does not show an overly impressive storm. Convection is not very strong and the circulation, while present, remains very weak.

Weather radar out of Guadeloupe is hardly impressive. There is some weak banding features but generally just some rain. Boo hiss?

The intensity models are generally unimpressive and radar development seems very unlikely. Of course, I am still not yet convinced that we are even dealing with a tropical storm. Definite "boo hiss." As previously mentioned, the circulation should drift slowly toward the northeast. (Yes, in the direction of Florida.) EVERYONE PANIC!!!!!


Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink