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Invest 97L off the Coast of the Carolinas

We have a new area of interest in the North Atlantic after weeks of relative silence. Climatologically speaking, we have been enjoying an average season thus far. It is not unusual at all for June and July to remain inactive. However, a (subtropical?) disturbance moved off the East Coast yesterday and split into two lows: one that is now heading off the coast of Nova Scotia, moving over cool water, and another that is southeast of Cape Hatteras. This area of low pressure is in a region that could possibly support tropical development, with wind shear values under 10 knots and and sea-surface temperatures over the Gulf Stream of around 26 degrees Celsius. The SHIPS model is forecasting slow development of the low into a tropical storm in 60 hours. If that development occurs, the tropical storm would be named Beryl. However, none of the global models have yet picked up on the storm. The GFS is forecasting shear to remain low, so some intensification will remain possible if the storm can stay over the Gulf Stream. Tomorrow, aircraft reconnaissance will enter the region to see if there is a closed circulation. If there is, we may see Tropical Depression Two-L as soon as tomorrow afternoon. Unfortunately, the QuikSCAT satellite derived winds are unavailable, so it is difficult to tell whether there is a closed circulation or what the winds are underneath this area of thunderstorms. The satellite picture is not very impressive, however, to my eye, it looks like there might be a closed circulation. If I had to guess, I would say that tomorrow evening we will be looking at TD Two-L in the Atlantic. Stay tuned to the StormTrack for more.

Figure 1. Infrared satellite picture of Invest 97L. There is not a lot of convection with this storm, however conditions are favorable for development.

Posted by Adam Moyer | Permalink