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Gulf Stream keeps Beryl in the game

The warm waters of the Gulf Stream are making me eat my words from last night. Today convection, although fairly shallow, has returned to Beryl. In fact, NHC increased Beryl's winds to 60 mph in the last advisory. Eh, it happens. The previous subtropical structure has faded significantly and Beryl is holding her own. With the latest advisory, a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands of Massachusetts.

Visible and infrared imagery show a shallow core of convection still surrounding the center. While not impressive, Beryl is still very much alive. For those of you who like cool satellite shots, noticed the solar glare near the Carolinas on the visible shot.

Given Beryl's forecast track, the Gulf Stream should allow sea surface temperatures to remain just warm enough to prevent significant weakening. Beryl is currently located over just about the best real estate in the area if you are a tropical cyclone.

While the GFDL model seems to not like New York (must be written by a Red Sox fan), the model consensus seems to bring Beryl right along Cape Cod. I know a couple people in the National Weather Service office in Taunton, MA, that must be getting very excited right now. While some further strengthening looks likely, Beryl is not likely to become a hurricane and should began to weaken soon.

Operational model forecast tracks

Operational model wind speed forecast

Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink