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Don't Call it a Comeback

Well, after Bryan and I spouted off about the impending extratropical transition of Beryl, convection fired again this morning and has wrapped around the center Beryl. The tropical storm appears to be reorganizing itself again over relatively warm SSTs and little shear. NHC is calling for some intensification through the day today, which, given the current atmospheric conditions, seems like a possibility. The outflow from the new thunderstorms appears to have stopped the dry air from killing off the system.

Figure 1. Water vapor image from the SSMI satellite. The warmer colors indicate where the upper troposphere is more moist. The center of circulation is under the most moist air.
Figure 2. Visible (top) and microwave (bottom) satellite pictures. It is becoming apparent that the thunderstorms are now centered over the center of circulation, a sign the Beryl is becoming more organized.

Interestingly, most of the computer models are now forecasting a landfall in the Mid-Atlantic or New England (The feared storm of AccuWeather!). I'm not buying it though. An upper level low pressure system will be moving out of the Great Lakes and toward the Atlantic Seaboard. This upper level low should be enough to keep Beryl out to sea and away from the major port cities of the Northeast

Figure 3. Computer model track forecasts for Tropical Storm Beryl. I agree with NHC that the models are all biased too far west.

Posted by Adam Moyer | Permalink