Well, it took a little bit longer than I thought yesterday, but TD-1 has formed in the extreme NW Carribean. This storm will be primarily a rain event, wherever it goes. The computer models are all over the place with this storm, with landfall being forecasted anywhere from Texas to Tampa. The official NHC cone has the storm hitting somewhere in Florida, from about Panama City to Fort Myers.
Figure 1. NHC official forecast cone for TD-1
TD-1 is forecast to become a tropical storm today with maximum winds during its lifetime reaching 55 mph. The reason this storm will not get stronger is due to wind shear, which is forecast to increase over the next 36 hours over the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the low pressure center is to the west of the majority of thunderstorms. On the visible satellite image, you can see what looks to be the exposed center of circulation just east of the Yucatan.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of TD-1
Overall, this storm is very difficult to forecast for location, but should be no more than a heavy rain storm to whomever it affects, since the winds are not forecast to be very strong with this system. Stay tuned to The StormTrack for more.