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Two Disturbances in the Atlantic

We've got two systems getting some organization in the Atlantic. The first, Invest 91L, is currently centered over the Florida Peninsula. It is forecast to move westward over open water in the next 24 hours (Figure 1). There is low-shear over the Bahamas right now, so some intensification is possible (Figure 2). However, sea-surface temperatures are just above the 26 degree Celsius threshold, making intensification a little less likely (Figure 3). The intensity models are somewhat bearish on this system as well (Figure 4), with only the SHIPS and GFDL models taking it above tropical storm status. My guess is that this system will become Tropical Depression Two before making landfall near the Carolinas overnight Tuesday night.

The second system we're keeping an eye on is Invest 93L (Figure 5). The models are taking this system west-northwestward over the next few days, affecting the Lesser Antilles. This system will be moving into some extremely warm sea-surface temperatures as it enters the Carribean (Figure 3), but will also be experiencing some high wind shear (Figure 2). Some of the the intensity models for 93L are forecasting it to become a tropical storm as early as Tuesday night, although not the major global models like the GFS. It appears to me that the shear is too high for formation to occur, but as with Alberto, I've been proven wrong before. Either way head on over to the message board to take part in our vBookie betting for this event.

Figure 1. Track forecast for 91L.
Figure 2. Wind shear analysis showing the locations of 91L (red) and 93L (teal). (Source: UW-CIMSS)
Figure 3. Sea-surface temperature analysis showing the locations of 91L (red) and 93L (teal). (Source: NOAA)
Figure 4. Maximum velocity forecast for 91L.
Figure 5. Satellite image of 93L. (Source: NRL)

Posted by Adam Moyer | Permalink