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TD One remains very weak

11:00pm EDT Update: Things again remain basically unchanged. NHC seems ready to upgrade the depression to Tropical Storm Alberto with the slightest sign of strengthening. Look for Tropical Storm Watches to be issued tomorrow for the western coast of Florida. I am currently working on some new additions to our computer model charts so look for an update later tonight when they are finished.


I know that I was excited today to see the first tropical depression of the season, but TD One remains very weak and poorly organized. The last advisory lists the wind steady at 35 mph and the pressure up slightly to 1004 mb. Thus far, the center of circulation of the system has been very hard to find. Satellite imagery is not too impressive, but there is a lot of active convection. However, that convection is not very centralized around the circulation.

Thus far, the radars haven't show anything spectacular. While there is clearly some very heavy rain associated with this depression, the banding does not look very organized.

As for the progression of the storm. If it survives the trek across the Gulf, northern Florida should be alert. Right now northward motion and curvature up the Eastern Seaboard looks very likely, but once the storm crosses Florida, it will very likely transition into an extratropical storm. Also keep in mind, that its intensity is likely to top out at around 50 mph so damage should be minimal.

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