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TD-2 On The Way?

Invest 91L has become much better organized in the last 6-8 hours. At the 11:30 AM advisory, NHC warns that this system could be upgraded at any time as the hurricane hunters have just begun investigating the storm. If they find a closed circulation, the system will be upgraded to tropical depression status ASAP. The track models are showing the storm moving either into the south coast of North Carolina or moving out to sea. Either way, heavy rain, gusty winds, and high surf will be affecting North Carolina this afternoon. The intensity models are not showing intensification to tropical storm status, and even if the storm remains at sea, the system will be moving into a higher shear/lower sea-surface temperature environment, which makes intensification less likely. I'm going to stick with my guess from yesterday and forecast this to become TD-2 and make landfall somewhere on the North Carolina coast late tonight or early Wednesday. Stay tuned to The StormTrack for more.

Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of Invest 91L. Notice the deeper convection this morning associated with the storm. (Source: NRL)
Figure 2. Track forecast for Invest 91L.
Figure 3. Maximum velocity forecast for Invest 91L.

Posted by Adam Moyer | Permalink