To be notified of news about this storm and others through the season:

For computer model forecasts, visit our charts page.

TD-1 upgraded to Tropical Storm Alberto

The newly named Tropical Storm Alberto is not a classic storm in any sense. Radar echoes from both Key West, FL, and La Bajada, Cuba are indicating large curved bands of rain and thunderstorm. Such curved bans are a sure sign of a circulation. However, this center of circulation is nowhere near those bands.

Inrafred satellite imagery is not showing a lot of active convection near the center, however, there are large rain bands to the east of the center. By far, most of the storm's convection is on the east side where the tropical storm force winds were reported earlier today.

The visible satellite image is clearly showing that well defined circulation in the central Gulf of Mexico. Note the curved low level clouds wrapping into the center of circulation. However, this also shows how far from the center the large bands really are.

Cuba and the Florida Keys have been getting a lot of rain as a result of this storm. Radar estimates from Key West indicate up to a foot of rain has fallen across Cuba from the depression. However, the estimates are likely conservative in many localities where the terrain enhances rainfall.

The computer models are clearly locking onto Northern Florida for a future landfall if Alberto is able to survive that long. Considering this consistency in the track, it is surprising to note that Alberto thus far has been holding on the left side of the expected track. If this trend continues it would keep the center of the storm under more hostile conditions and bring it toward the northern Gulf Coast.

After crossing Florida, the models call for the system to continue to track of the East Coast. However, it should transition to an extratropical system along the way.

Intensity forecasts are another matter completely. How lucky do you feel? About 2/3 of the models are calling for gradual intensification, while the other third are calling for no further development.

As for forecast wind speeds, once again the models are split down the same lines. The consensus seems to be to keep the system a weak tropical storm. While last night the GFDL was calling for Alberto to reach hurricane strength, it has since backed off that forecast.

Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink