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Or Maybe Not

I posted on Wednesday about the lack of development in the first week of the Atlantic hurricane season. Perhaps I was a little hasty in my assessment. As I talked about on Wednesday, a few of the computer models were forecasting something to form near the Yucatan Peninsula. Well, now even the GFS is on board with this idea. Check out the 60 hour forecasts from the GFS, Canadian, and WRF models. These forecasts are valid for Sunday morning at 8AM EDT. It looks like something may pop up in the Gulf of Mexico. Model forecasts take the disturbance toward the Florida panhandle sometime next week. There is low shear currently over the Gulf of Mexico, so development isn't out of the question. Stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for updates.

Adam EDIT: As of 1:30 PM EDT, the circulation has closed around the surface low. I'll be shocked if NHC doesn't classify this as TD #1 at the 5PM advisory time

Posted by Adam Moyer | Permalink