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TD1-E?

NHC seems to be ready to jump the gun and declare the first tropical depression of the Eastern Pacific season. Here is there latest discussion:

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. EVEN IF A DEPRESSION DOES NOT FORM...HEAVY RAINS COULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

I see the area they are talking about but would barely consider it worthy of depression status. There is clearly active convection, but nothing impressive. I think NHC is being a little generous early in the season. Check out the latest infrared shot.

20060526.1715.goes12.x.ir1km.91EINVEST.25kts-1006mb-129N-1007W.100pc.small.jpg
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Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink