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Tropical Cyclone Hubert forms off Western Australia

Here is the first advisory from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology:

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 9:00 pm WST on Wednesday, 5 April 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Tropical cyclone Hubert [Severity Category 1] was located at 8 pm near 17.0S 116.3E, that is 420 kilometres north of Karratha and 600 kilometres northnortheast of Exmouth moving south southwest at 15 kilometres per hour. The cyclone is not expected to affect the coast within the next 48 hours.

The next advice will be issued at 3am Thursday.

The infrared satellite imagery is showing very healthy convection and a strengthening cyclone. While an eye is not yet visible, the convection remains deep, very symmetric, and has excellent banded form and associated outflow.

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The symmetry of convection and healthy curved outflow is further reinforced in the latest visible image.

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A quick look at the U.S. Navy's latest forecast track shows the huge track uncertainty associated with Hubert. The Australian governement's forecast track below is just as uncertain, but they aren't even attempting to forecast the cyclone past 48 hours.

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Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink