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Monica makes landfall as Category 5

It seems that Darwin has been spared the worst. After reaching absolutely amazing power as one of the most powerful storms ever recorded, Monica took a job to the south and made landfall along a sparesely populated area of the Northern Territory. Monica came ashore with a solid double eyewall, but was unfortunately out of range of any weather radars. Below is the visible satellite shot from landfall and the current infrared image.

20060424.0730.gms6.x.vis1km_high.23PMONICA.155kts-879mb-117S-1345E.100pc.small.jpg
View infrared satellite image

20060424.1330.gms6.x.ir1km.23PMONICA.120kts-922mb-120S-1337E.100pc.small.jpg
View infrared satellite image

Here is the latest from the Bureau of Meteorology:

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 10 pm CST [8:30 pm WST]:
. Centre located near...... 12.0 degrees South 133.7 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 14 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 260 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 4
. Central pressure......... 935 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current between MILINGIMBI and PORT KEATS, including DARWIN, TIWI ISLANDS, COBOURG PENINSULA and JABIRU. A CYCLONE WATCH extends southwest to KALUMBURU in Western Australia.

Monica_102406_threat.gif
View threat map

This turn to the south was not at all expected in the models, but did not come as a complete surprise. In fact, I did mention on the messageboard that my gut was thinking it would happen. This just proves that there is no substitute for a human forecaster.

track.2006042400.23P.ens.gifView model tracks


Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink