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I hate it when I am right.... not really

An conversation from late last Friday night:


(01:19:45) Bryan: let it be known that I think it is going to snow next weekend
(01:20:05) Bryan: the models have that look. while they are not showing a coastal storm, I am going to bite
(01:20:07) Jordan: Good to know
(01:21:06) Jordan: Lol
(01:21:14) Jordan: K
(01:22:24) Bryan: seriously, I am going to jump on it
(01:22:32) Bryan: although we have a La Nina right now
(01:22:39) Bryan: which SUCKS for snow
(01:22:43) Jordan: Lol
(01:22:48) Bryan: La Nina means we get La Nada
(01:25:46) Jordan: A pity

The models last weekend looked very odd to me. There was a massive cold air mass over the continent with a broad but weak area of low pressure over the Great Lakes. Combine that with a small inflection in the thickness lines, and as you can see, I was thinking storm.

Well, check out the latest GFS model run for 7am Sunday morning.

020806_gfs_slp_096l.gif

I am waiting for the recruitment call from the National Weather Service. Taunton eat your heart out. As a matter of fact, here is the latest from them:

THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE TRACK OF A POTENTIAL NOREASTER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WE ARE STILL ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT SO WE WANT TO BE CAUTIOUS BUT THIS DEFINITELY HAS POTENTIAL. SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWEST IS PROGGED TO DIVE TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FORM A SURFACE LOW. THIS LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFIES INTO A COASTAL STORM. NOW THE QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY IT TRACKS AND HOW QUICKLY IT INTENSIFIES.

OKAY... SO WE WILL QUICKLY RUN THROUGH THE MODELS. THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST/STRONGEST/CLOSEST TO THE COAST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW IN EXCESS OF A FOOT FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION... WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. IN ADDITION... STRONG WINDS WOULD RESULT IN HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ALONG THE COAST WITH 850 MB WINDS NEAR 75 KNOTS. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 10.2 FEET AND OCCURS AROUND NOON ON SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION FOLLOWED EXACTLY WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOOD EVENT. WITH THAT SAID... WE THINK THIS SOLUTION IS A BIT TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST AND INTENSIFIES THE LOW TO QUICKLY. HOWEVER...IT DOES HAVE EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO IT CAN'T BE IGNORED.

I even had a discussion with one of NWS Taunton's interns last week:

(01:10:59) Bryan: you going to winterfest next weekend?
(01:11:07) Erica E: i'll b in ct
(01:11:23) Bryan: harrrr
(01:11:29) Bryan: take a look at the latest AVN
(01:11:35) Bryan: I think it may snow next weekend
(01:11:37) Bryan: on Saturday
(01:13:32) Bryan: come on, that looks like a classic Noreaster setup
(01:13:47) Erica E: im not lookin at it yet
(01:14:02) Bryan: then check the vort max
(01:14:17) Bryan: my gut tells me storm on this one
(01:19:23) Bryan: ok, I am going to bite
(01:19:26) Bryan: I am thinking snow
(01:24:01) Erica E: it has a nice signature
(01:25:59) Bryan: to me that screams snow storm

Yes, I am proud. Please share your forecasts / thoughts.


Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink