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"If it looks like a hurricane..."

Updated
How many of you remember this forecast discussion from Vince?

5 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

IF IT LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE... IT PROBABLY IS... DESPITE ITS ENVIRONMENT AND UNUSUAL LOCATION. MOST AVAILABLE DATA SUGGESTS VINCE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING TODAY.

Well, Zeta is starting to look like a hurricane. As I mentioned earlier today, some people at the National Hurricane Center need to learn that denial is not just a river in Egypt. Some forecasters seem to be insisting that tropical cyclones do not form in January over waters near 24 degrees C. Well, they should have learned to expect the unheard of this season. My hat does go off to forecaster Avila at NHC, as he at least seems to recognize the tropical demons that have taken over the Atlantic Ocean. Zeta seems to be approaching hurricane strength.

Check out the last visible shot of Zeta for the day:

0:Today's last visible shot

The latest infrared image also shows very healthy outflow to the north and indicates strong banding near the center of circulation. It is evident that Zeta is sucking in some dry air from the west, but that dry air does not seem to be weakening the storm.

1:Latest infrared image

Now check out the microwave imagery. It seems as if Zeta may be building an eyewall (visible in blue).

Latest microwave image

Also check out the latest rainfall rate satellite estimate. Look at that minimum spot right below the strong band. Notice the eye-like lull at the center of circulation?

3:Rainfall rate satellite estimate

Update #2? Eye see it!

3:Microwave imagery of forming eye


Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink