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Winter to arrive in a big way

Now that we are all busy watching Hurricane Epsilon churn through the Atlantic, I thought I'd remind everyone that there is a major snow storm coming to the Northeast in a few days. No, I do not mean that insignificant 2-4 inches that should cover the area tonight. I am talking about widespread accumulations on the order of 9-12 inches in many areas on Tuesday. Do I have your attention yet?

The models are tending closer to the coast with the passage of a Nor'Easter early in the week. The GFS (Global Forecasting System) is coming up very much near the 40N/70W benchmark which is in a perfect position to spread snow across the Northeast. The NAM (North American Model), however, remains out to sea. GFS forecasts are calling for a widespread area of near one inch of liquid precipitation which should translate to a foot of snow in many areas. The precipitation is expected to be in the form of snow across the entire Northeast except for one pocket of rain over Cape Cod and the Islands.

The New York office of the National Weather Service is finally starting to jump on board with the storm:
The true calm before the storm as both the global and regional models are coming around into good agreement with the season's first major snowstorm. There is potential for 6 inches or more of snowfall late Monday night into Tuesday. Should the 18 and 00z runs follow in suit...there is a good likelihood that a winter storm watch will be posted in the next 24 hours.

The Boston forecast office has been on board for a while now:
Expect snow to overspread FA (forecast area) from south to north after midnight with heaviest snow near 12-18z (7AM-1PM) period. Very strong mid level frontogenesis combined with steep mid level lapse rates supports burst of heavy snow Tuesday morning...especially along I-95 corridor. ... If this all plays out the way it is currently modeled snowfall rates of 2"/hr possible.

Operational GFS showing QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) 0.5"-1" from I-95 eastward with max on Cape Cod. It is interesting to note that about half of ensemble members actually show 1"+ southeast of I-95. Prelim thinking is for 5-10" snowfall near I-95 corridor...less on Cape as well as northwest MA/soutern NH. given potential for higher QPF per ensembles and strong banding signal this storm has the potential to bring a foot of snow but duration will be a limiting factor. We need to see next few model runs continue hitting this storm before we become more confident of a foot of snow.

This storm does not come as a surprise. We at StormTrack were talking about this earlier in the week.
0:GFS forecast position
1:NAM forecast position
2:Precipitation types
3:Potential snowfall


Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink