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Hurricane Epsilon hanging tough

As of the 10AM EST Public Advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Epsilon is maintained as a Category One hurricane with sustained winds of 75 mph and a central pressure of 987 mb. The eye of the hurricane is 1000 miles west of the Azores and moving to the east at 12 mph.

Hurricane Epsilon is maintaining a narrow ring of convection surrounding the eye. The ring remains moderately deep and wraps around the whole eye. Beyond that, outflow remains weak but present and the storm is remarkably symmetric. Epsilon is truly an amazing storm considering its strength and location.

It is amazing that Epsilon thus far has refused to weaken. NHC notes that the only factor that should physically be contributing positively towards Epsilon's strength is the upper level temperature. Beyond that, cooler sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and an increasingly hostile environment should have caused Epsilon to weaken by now. Especially considering the cool water below Epsilon, the hurricane was expected to transition to an extratropical storm by now. However, there are no signs of that transition occurring. In fact, the GFDL model is maintaining Epsilon as a warm-core system for the foreseeable future.

Seeing no physical processes capable of continuing to support Epsilon as a hurricane, the forecast does call for Epsilon to weaken. However, this has been the forecast for some time now. This hurricane, like Vince before it, seems to have no concern for precedent and the rules of physics. The models are no longer tracking Epsilon towards the northeast and instead are pushing Epsilon due east in the short term. The result of this is that Epsilon will not be traveling over as dramatically cooler SSTs. In a few days in Epsilon is still intact, which is expected at least as a remnant low, the models are now turning the system to the south. This will bring whatever is left of the storm back over warmer waters. Things just keep getting more interesting.

On a personal note, I am really going to miss this hurricane season when it finally does come to a close. When Epsilon is longer a concern and there are no more potential system kicking around the tropics, I will issue a yearly review of this record shattering hurricane season. Included will be a discussion as what is really causing this unprecedented activity by examining both sides of the story.
0:Track Map
1:Visible Satellite
2:Infrared Satellite
3:Computer Models
4:Model forecast track and SSTs
5:Cyclone core temperature forecast


Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink