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Tropical Storm Delta maintains strength, track uncertain

The 10:00pm EST advisory from the National Hurricane Center has maintained Tropical Storm Delta's intensity at 60 mph and 982 mb. This makes Delta a strong tropical storm. Delta is currently moving south-southeast at 8 mph. Earlier today Delta continued this record breaking tropical season by becoming the 28th Atlantic tropical cyclone and 25th named storm this season.0:NHC Track Map

The infrared satellite imagery is showing a very strong storm on the east side but virtually no convection on the west side. Delta has finally established healthy outflow that it has been lacking for a couple days, but only to the right side. The infrared imagery also confirms the presence of a very strong and organized circulation.1:Infrared Satellite Image

Microwave imagery confirms the presence of a strong eastern side and a western side that is lacking any significant activity. Additionally, the microwave shot is showing a distinct eyewall that had shown up on the visible imagery all day long.2:Microwave Satellite Image

Delta's future track is very difficult to predict at this point. The models are all calling for a general drift towards the north, but there is nothing even close to a consensus among them. Seemingly the best bet right now is generally in-line with NHC. Delta should slowly drift slightly further directly south and then turn around and head directly north.3:Model Forecast Tracks

Looking at the GFDL model as an example, it is clear that in the short term Delta will be drifting over slightly warmer water. This southerly drift combined with weakening wind shear could allow Delta to briefly intensify into a hurricane. However, this would be short lived as Delta will quickly turn northward over cooler sea surface temperatures (SST's).4:GFDL Forecast Track

Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink