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Oil is up, wait, down, on warmer, wait, colder weather

From the Associated Press:

By Associated Press | November 15, 2005

NEW YORK -- Crude oil futures rose slightly yesterday on predictions a cold snap was headed for the northeastern United States, the world's biggest winter heating fuel market.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery rose 16 cents to settle at $57.69 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after rising as high as $58.20 earlier in the day.

Heating oil rose 0.69 cent to settle at $1.7304 a gallon, while gasoline rose 1.11 cents to settle at $1.4961 a gallon.

Forecaster AccuWeather predicted a ''big change" in the weather pattern this week, with a cold jet stream, coming from Canada, hitting the eastern US by midweek and staying through the weekend, AccuWeather said.

''Heating oil is up solidly, and that's taking the pressure off the crude market," said Ed Silliere, vice president of risk management at Energy Merchant LLC in New York. But the market is waiting for the cold weather to happen before making any big moves, he added.

- Read the full article -"


Reuters is reporting:

LONDON, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Oil slid on Tuesday as unseasonably warm U.S. weather encouraged refiners to stockpile winter fuel.

With balmy weather limiting demand and OPEC pumping nearly flat out in response to devastating autumn storms in the U.S. Gulf, oil has given up most of its hurricane rally -- falling last week to its lowest point since July.

The cartel's acting Secretary General Adnan Shihab-Eldin said prices are now "more realistic" and reflect a recovering balance between demand and supply.

U.S. light crude oil was trading at $57.60 a barrel at 1444 GMT, down nine cents from Monday's close. London Brent also lost 28 cents to stand at $54.45 a barrel.

"There's an awful lot of bearish momentum, but at these levels, we are getting to the stage when we should start finding a base," said Mark Keenan of MPC.

"It's looking like all the perceived demand destruction that catalysed the downtrend is not really true."

Warmer-than-average pre-winter conditions have given consumers time to build inventories drained after Katrina and Rita knocked out rigs and refineries in the U.S. Gulf.

U.S. crude oil inventories, already nearly 13 percent above year-ago levels, likely rose 2 million barrels in the week to Nov. 11 while distillate stocks -- including heating oil -- probably increased by 700,000 barrels, according to a preliminary Reuters forecast of nine analysts [EIA/S].

Temperatures are getting colder in the northern hemisphere, but demand for heating oil in the heavy consuming U.S. Northeast is likely to be about 4.6 percent below normal this week, the U.S. National Weather Service said on Monday.

- Read the full article -"

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