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NHC Special Tropical Disturbance

From NHC:

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA HAS NOT DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WHILE THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB IN THE LOW...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN BOTH COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

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THE AIRCRAFT ALSO INVESTIGATED THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN TO THE NORTH OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND DID NOT FIND A
CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE PLANE REPORTED WINDS OF
NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS
AREA.

THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE
WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM. EVEN IF DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT OCCUR...HEAVY RAINS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

I will say that this system has very impressive outflow. If it could sustain some central convection, it could easily become a tropical storm. Alas, I don't forsee that happening very soon.

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Posted by Bryan Woods | Permalink