The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is forecasting a moderate risk of a severe weather outbreak today and tonight across central portions of the country. The focus of this outbreak is likely to be across Arkansas, southern Missouri, and eastern Kansas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over eastern Kansas early this afternoon while a separate cold front/dry line pushes east through Oklahoma. Strong tornadoes are possible late this afternoon and early this evening, and strong winds are expected in association with a segmented squall line.
By this evening a large squall line is expected to develop through the Mississippi Valley. Strong shear profiles support the possibility of storm rotation and associated tornadic activity. There is a very cold air mass aloft combined with unseasonable warm temperatures at the surface that will likely combine to make very strong downbursts of damaging wind and large hail.